President's Corner

by Pete Swan

Number of Launches Growing Fast

Concern

The space arena has had an exciting run in 2023 for rocket launches and the missions resulting from those. The launch rates are remarkable for the globe and especially for SpaceX. The problem for the globe is the burning of rocket fuel in the atmosphere is at an unprecedented rate. Here are some numbers:

  • The global rate is now about twice the yearly average over the past years [my estimate by looking at the chart below], 225 vs. about 100.

  • The issue to address is the rate of acceleration of rocket launches per year. When looking at SpaceX’s recent performance and estimates for the near future, the numbers go from roughly 25 per year [between 2017 and 2022] to an escalating rate per year with 2023 just short of 100 and the estimates for 2024 around 145 launches [SpaceX’s expectation].

  • When one looks at global predictions, the number of launches is around 245 in 2024 [The Space Report – web 1 Mar 2024]. Universities are evaluating the effects of rockets through the atmosphere; however, they are evaluating individual launches at single launch locations.

The question on the table deals with the global impact on the atmosphere as rocket launches continue to grow in numbers around the world. Can the atmosphere endure long enough for our Green Road to Space to offload the heavy lifting of logistics support for our movement off-planet?

orbital launches by year

Question on the Table

One of the problems we have is the ability to quickly explain how the impact of rocket launches will affect our future and the global movement toward a healthier atmosphere. A strength of Space Elevators is that they will be environmentally neutral and enable so many missions that require heavy mass delivered off-planet.

“Space elevators will provide a transformational capability as a permanent space access infrastructure to ‘Elevate’ massive cargo--daily, efficiently, inexpensively--to GEO and beyond. These permanent infrastructures, with parallel strengths as terrestrial bridges, will be distributed around the equator and enable the Green Road to Space to become reality and help decrease the damage to our atmosphere.” [Pete Swan Feb 2024] Our vision is indeed:

“Space Elevators are the Green Road to Space while they enable humanity's most important missions by moving massive tonnage to GEO and beyond. They accomplish this safely, routinely, inexpensively, daily; and, they are environmentally neutral.”

Action plan

When you hear about research being conducted on our atmosphere when rockets pass through, inquire about their focus--one launch or global, near-term number of launches, or hundreds, and do they know about the Green Road to Space? Once again, our outreach should be increased, and efforts started to emphasize our strengths vs the danger of rockets burning fuel in the atmosphere.

Pete

SEC Announcement

If you have been paying attention to the newsletter, you will already know that the Space Elevator Conference is already in the planning stages. The Call for Papers was published in the last edition (with updates, below) and the SEC was added to the “Upcoming Events” section with unconfirmed dates. It is now time to make the official announcement with corrected dates…

Space Elevator Conference 2024

The upcoming Space Elevator Conference will be held September 7th-8th, in the Aon Center Building, Chicago, Illinois, USA. The theme is, "Space Elevators as a Permanent Transformational Transportation Infrastructure."

We will be providing more information in future editions of this publication, but the latest information will be promptly posted on the ISEC website under News and Events  if you can’t wait for the next newsletter!

https://www.isec.org/events/isec2024

Call for Papers

International Space Elevator Consortium
Space Elevator Conference 2024 

The International Space Elevator Consortium invites the submission of abstracts for papers to be presented at its 2024 conference in Chicago, Saturday, September 7th, and Sunday, September 8th. Papers should cover space elevator topics including design, dynamics, applications, scientific value, and economic impact.

Abstracts should be between 200 and 400 words in length and briefly describe the contents of the proposed paper and its importance to the development of space elevators. Abstracts must be in PDF format and submitted before 31 May 2024 to the review board chairman:

Dennis Wright (dennis.wright@isec.org)

Authors will be notified of abstract acceptance by 15 June, at which point they will be invited to submit a paper on the topic and make a 20-minute oral presentation at the conference. Authors may opt for a 10-minute oral presentation which does not require an accompanying paper. All oral presentation materials, such as ppt or PDF slides must be submitted before the conference.

Technical papers should be a minimum of 2,000 words in length, including supporting figures, and will be considered for publication either in the ISEC conference proceedings or other journal.

Important Dates

conference submission dates

Please send questions or requests for details to the e-mail address above.

Elevator Speech

by Pete Swan

Elevate!

Last month I requested help in revising a short presentation titled, "Elevate" on the concept of space elevators in an “Elevator Speech.” Also called an "Elevator Pitch," an "Elevator Speech" is a quick--less than a minute--summary of an idea being presented to a complete stranger in the time it takes to complete a ride in a typical elevator. I received several inputs and using them came up with the following that is now on our home page [www.isec.org]. Thanks to Sandra, Douglas, Landon, and Nigel. The improved words and approach are:

Space elevators position humanity to address Earth’s challenges from a new vantage point. We are on the brink of transforming our relationship with space, offering an eco-friendly, cost-effective, and efficient logistics method to transport large cargoes into space. This gateway will provide unparalleled opportunities in space exploration, resource utilization, and satellite assembly.  Starting in the late 2030s, space elevator infrastructures will deliver satellites and other payloads to GEO, the Moon, and Mars at the rate of 30,000 tonnes, every year. This surpasses the total launched between 1957 and 2022. Indeed--a seismic shift! By harnessing electricity for lift, each space elevator promises daily deliveries of up to 14 tonnes to geostationary orbit (GEO), dramatically reducing the environmental impact as compared to rocket launches. Space elevator designs have an unmatched 70% pad mass to GEO efficiency, as compared to only 2% for rockets. They have the potential to unlock solutions to Earth's most pressing challenges such as harvesting solar power from space, climate monitoring, and global communication networks. As humanity stands on the cusp of this new era, these ribbons from ocean to space offer the promise of making space accessible to all, fostering global cooperation, positioning humanity to address Earth's challenges, and inspiring a sustainable future for our planet.

Book Review

by Charlie Krone

The Three-Body Problem

The Three-Body Problem

The Three-Body Problem, a novel by Cixin Liu, has a fascinating shape to the storyline, one that begins shrouded in mystery. What starts as subtle hints from Liu leads to revelations that expand the human scope of the story around the globe, across time, and throughout space. On first reading, and with little forward knowledge of the book beyond the physics conundrum inherent in the title, there are moments of rapid development in the story that are worth the wait, and boy howdy, are they effective at blowing the reader’s mind! Liu does a wonderful job of developing multi-faceted and sometimes deeply conflicted characters to drive a truly unique story.

Liu raises the curtain during China’s Cultural Revolution by placing the antagonist, Ye Wenjie, in this setting around 1970. Her view of world events is heavily colored by personal tragedy as the brilliant astrophysicist finds herself in the midst of a classified research project for the People’s Liberation Army. A young Ye becomes consumed with the mystery this program seeks to reveal only to make the most significant discovery in human history--and reveal the grave peril it poses to the world. Her traumatic past causes her to act on these revelations with a singular sense of purpose. With charisma, focus, and a bulky PLA uniform (an image I am recalling from the TV series produced in China), she rallies people to her cause, but at what cost to humanity?

The book spans about 40 years, jumping between the Revolution and the cell phone era. In more modern times, we meet Wang Miao, a physicist and academician whose focus is on applied science rather than theoretical, researching super-strong nanomaterials. A string of high-profile suicides in the worldwide community of scientists brings Wang together with a former cop and soldier named Shen Yufei who is investigating the deaths. Their relationship is an absolute joy to watch grow throughout the story, with Shen bringing a much-needed levity to balance the tumult of Ye’s story from decades earlier. The paths of these three would merge in a shocking manner, with many military, civilian, and cultist players from around the Earth adding to the flavor of the intricate plot. Much like Andy Weir’s Project Hail Mary, we see existential crises bringing the nations of Earth together in a last ditch effort to fight for the future of humanity.

You might ask, “When did ISEC become a space-version of GoodReads? Where are the space elevators?” Much like in the real world, there is still work to be done for their realization, but an “outside influence” in the story recognizes Wang’s nanomaterials as being the bridge to constructing a space elevator, escaping the tyranny of the Rocket Equation, and beginning off-world development. Those whose sway led to the unexplained rash of suicides recognize that a space elevator would quickly expand human presence throughout the solar system and eventually the stars. This would threaten all they have put in motion.

The most important takeaway from The Three Body Problem is that even opposing forces recognize that if humans get their collective act together and build one or more trollies to space, our growth as a civilization would be exponential. Well, maybe that isn’t the core message of The Three-Body Problem, but seeing space elevators continue to show up in popular media may have the same effect as communicators, warp drives, tri-corders, and other science fiction devices that inspired so many to research and develop the technology that we enjoy today without a second thought.

Charlie Krone is a member of ISEC and works for Spire Global, assisting organizations with on-orbit operations of satellites. He is currently attending Embry Riddle Aeronautical University pursuing a Master of Space Operations degree. Charlie is also a life-long musician, has produced and voiced several audio books, and is an active voice-over talent for broadcast media on radio, TV, and “over the top” streams such as Pandora, Spotify, and other ad-supported broadcast services.

Tether Materials

by Adrian Nixon and Dennis Wright, Board Members, ISEC

Imperfect May Be Good Enough
for Graphene Tether Materials

The tether is a critical element of the space elevator.  It must be incredibly strong over vast distances with a consistent tensile strength with a target of 100 GPa [1].  We know that graphene has the required combination of tensile strength and mass density to make the tether a reality.  The 130 GPa tensile strength we often quote refers to single-crystal graphene.

More people are paying attention to our messaging about tether quality materials, and we are being challenged in new ways.  The latest challenge was from a person with considerable industrial manufacturing experience who asked: “Given that industrial processes rarely produce perfect materials, can imperfect graphene be made good enough to do the job of a tether material?”

It was a good question because we know imperfect (polycrystalline) graphene is less strong than perfect single-crystal graphene.  However, to quantify this we needed to research the literature.

Fortunately, the work has been done by an international team with members in South Korea and the USA [2].  The team prepared samples of sheet graphene using the chemical vapour deposition (CVD) process.  Using electron microscopy, they characterized the graphene as polycrystalline with grain boundaries but no vacancy defects.  They called this material ‘well-stitched’.

Then they transferred the graphene sheet to a surface containing multiple small holes, or wells.  This suspended the graphene over the holes allowing an atomic force microscope to probe the graphene until it punctured.  By measuring the force required the team could determine the tensile strength of the material. 

They developed this method to measure the strength of single-crystal (pristine) graphene and found a tensile strength of 130 GPa which agreed with the theoretical predictions [3].  This means the test is a reliable indicator of the strength of graphene samples.

When the team tested the well-stitched polycrystalline graphene, they found its tensile strength was very high, between 90 and 99 GPa.

graphene-tensile-strength

Industrial scale manufacturing methods are likely to produce polycrystalline rather than perfect single crystal graphene at the scales and speeds needed to manufacture space elevator tether. 

This work shows that provided the material has crystal grain boundaries that are well-stitched and have few defects, the current manufacturing methods can make graphene that is strong enough to make a space elevator tether.

References:

1. B. Edwards, 2003. The Space Elevator NIAC Phase II Final Report. [online] Atlanta, GA: NASA Institute of Advanced Concepts (NIAC). Available at: <http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/521Edwards.pdf> [Accessed 25 February 2024].

2. Lee, G.-H. ., Cooper, R.C., An, S.J., Lee, S., van der Zande, A., Petrone, N., Hammerberg, A.G., Lee, C., Crawford, B., Oliver, W., Kysar, J.W. and Hone, J. (2013). High-Strength Chemical-Vapor-Deposited Graphene and Grain Boundaries. Science, 340(6136), pp.1073–1076. doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235126.

3. Lee, C., Wei, X., Kysar, J.W. and Hone, J. (2008). Measurement of the Elastic Properties and Intrinsic Strength of Monolayer Graphene. Science, [online] 321(5887), pp.385–388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1157996.

History Corner

by David Raitt, ISEC Chief Historian

Architects and Space Elevators

In last month’s newsletter there was a piece entitled Project Ascensio outlining the concept design of a space elevator by architect Jordan Williams Hughes which won a €10,000 Grand Prix Laureat in the 2023 Jacques Rougerie Competition.

Whilst there have been a number of concept designs of space elevators, they have emanated from a single initial idea some 130 years ago which has since then been refined, modified, and improved by other scientists and engineers. None of these space elevator baseline architectures, as we refer to them, has been entered and considered as an architectural project in any international competition along the way.

However, over seven years ago, Tom Phillips submitted his thesis for the Master of Arts Architecture degree at the University of Greenwich in London which achieved Distinction and was nominated for the silver medal of the Royal Institute of British Architects. His proposal with its use of groundbreaking technology with innovative design was said to have been strategically designed to combine the technicalities required with an architectural flare, a design that encompasses both function and form and intrinsically approaches the logistics through to the realization and design. The title of his thesis was "132,000,000:1 A Technological and Cultural Analysis of the Space Elevator" and it was published in two parts in August 2016 with Part 2 focussing on the comparisons of fiction, science, and his personal design project--The London Space Elevator.

Phillips recognized that the realization of the space elevator concept would completely transform the ease and costs associated with satellite positioning, space exploration, and intended future missions to Mars and beyond. Space tourism would become a reality and the construction of a space elevator was seen as a critical requirement in future space exploration. The focus of his architectural project for his proposed London Space Elevator was the Base Station and the logistics, zoning, design, and integration of specific elements. The space elevator itself would be mobile, with its base acting as a large, maneuverable ship-like form that could dock into a permanent platform in the Thames Estuary. This permanent docking platform would act as a large conglomeration of vital zones and would form an architectural exposition. Phillips believed that the London Space Elevator would bring science fiction to life by means of providing an efficient, intuitive, and sustainable transport line to space.

Phillips made an excellent, detailed video of his London Space Elevator and its architecture, covering all the main issues, which can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tTe435YWCo.

Part 1 of his thesis is available at https://issuu.com/tparchitecture/docs/book_1_full_001

Part 2 at: https://issuu.com/tparchitecture/docs/book_2_full_001.

Upcoming Events

42nd International Space Development Conference
Sponsored by the National Space Society
https://isdc.nss.org/
Thursday, May 23rd, through Sunday, May 26th, 2024
Sheraton Gateway, Los Angeles, California, USA
Theme: “No Limits”

7th International Conference on Tethers in Space
Sponsored by Lassonde School of Engineering, York University
and the International Academy of Astronautics
https://lassonde.yorku.ca/conf/tis2024/
Sunday, June 2nd, through Wednesday, June 5th, 2024
Toronto, Canada

8th Annual Nanotechnology Conference
Sponsored by the Royal Society of Chemistry
https://www.rsc.org/events/detail/77700/8th-annual-nanotechnology-conference-nanomat2024
Sunday, August 25th, through Wednesday, August 28th, 2024
Hotel Arcotel Wimberger, Vienna, Austria 

Space Elevator Conference
Sponsored by the International Space Elevator Consortium
https://www.isec.org/events/isec2024
****Note change in date from previously published event****
Saturday, September 7th, through Sunday, September 8th, 2024
Downtown Chicago, Illinois, USA

75th International Astronautical Congress
Sponsored by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF)
https://www.iafastro.org/events/iac/international-astronautical-congress-2024/
Theme: “Responsible Space for Sustainability”
Monday, October 14th, through Friday, October 18th, 2024
Milan, Italy

76th International Astronautical Congress
Sponsored by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF)
Monday, September 29th, through Friday, October 3rd, 2025
International Convention Centre, Sydney, Australia

77th International Astronautical Congress
Sponsored by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF)
https://iac2026antalya.com/
Theme: “The World Needs More Space”
Proposed Dates: October 5th through October 9th, 2026
Antalya, Turkey

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